Obvious Democratic, Probable Democratic, Leaning Democratic, Leaning Republican, Probable Republican, Obvious Republican
West: Hawaii 4, Alaska 3, California 55, Oregon 7, Washington 11, Nevada 5.
Mountain: Idaho 4, Utah 5, Arizona 10, Montana 3, Wyoming 3, Colorado 9, New Mexico 5.
Midwest: North Dakota 3, South Dakota 3, Nebraska 2 (see below), Kansas 6, Oklahoma 7, Missouri 11, Arkansas 6.
North: Minnesota 10, Iowa 7, Wisconsin 10, Illinois 21, Michigan 17, Indiana 11, Ohio 20.
Gulf: Texas 34, Louisiana 9, Mississippi 6, Alabama 9, Georgia 15, Florida 27.
Mideast: Kentucky 8, Tennessee 11, West Virginia 5, Virginia 13, North Carolina 15, South Carolina 8.
Mid-Atlantic: New York 31, Pennsylvania 21, New Jersey 15, DC 3, Maryland 10, Delaware 3.
New England: Vermont 3, New Hampshire 4, Maine 2 (see below), Massachusetts 12, Connecticut 7, Rhode Island 4.
Maine and Nebraska CDs: NE-01, NE-02, NE-03; ME-01, ME-02.
Summary by level:
Obvious Dem 165, Probable Dem 82 (cumulative 247), Leaning Dem 9. Democratic total: 256
Obvious Rep 135, Probable Rep 37 (cumulative 172), Leaning Rep 110. Republican total: 282
By my current prediction, John McCain is in position to win the election 282-256. Here's why:
Florida and Ohio. They suck, and the Democrats should not count on these states.
Missouri. For now at least, I'm less optimistic about the Democrats taking it than many people. This could easily change down the road, especially with the Dems expected to win the governor's race.
Michigan and Virginia. The Democrats can win both of these states. I just think right now they are underdogs.
Edit: Texas is Obvious Republican.
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